Working Papers
A Long View of Employment Growth and Firm Dynamics in the United States: Importers vs. Exporters vs. Non-Traders (with F. Kamal and W. Ouyang). Center for Economic Studies Working Paper #CES-21-38.
Measuring the Effects of Firm Uncertainty on Economic Activity: New Evidence from One Million Documents. 2020. (with J.F. Li). NBER working paper. Ungated version: http://bit.ly/HL2019CRUX. [Invited to Revise and Resubmit at Review of Economic Studies]
The China Shock Revisited: Job Reallocation and Industry Switching in U.S. Labor Markets with N. Bloom, A Kurmann, P. Luck (previously circulated as The Impact of Chinese Trade on U.S. Employment: The Good, the Bad, and the Debatable). https://www.nber.org/papers/w33098 [Invited to Revise and Resubmit at Review of Economic Studies]
Press: [The Economist], [WSJ Realtime Econ], [Financial Times], [Bloomberg]
Tariffs, Transport Costs, and Tax Evasion. 2018 (with T. Moore) Mimeo. http://bit.ly/HM2018evasion.
Published or Accepted Articles
The Role of International Trade Agreements During Economic and Policy Crises: Evidence from U.S. Firm Dynamics (with J. Carballo and N. Limão), previously circulated as “Economic and Policy Uncertainty: Export Dynamics and the Value of Agreements” , MARCH 2018 NBER Working Papers 24368, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Accepted at Review of International Economics]
Supply Chain Adjustments to Tariff Shocks: Evidence from Firm Trade Linkages in the 2018-2019 U.S. Trade War (with F. Kamal and R. Monarch) NBER Working Paper 31602, August 2023 [Accepted Economics Letters]
The Effects of Trade Policy Uncertainty. 2024 (with N. Limao). Forthcoming. In Jha, Priyaranjan and Mitra, Devashish, editors. Encyclopedia of International Trade. Edward Elgar, Northhampton, Mass. Link
The (Heterogenous) Economic Effects of Private Equity Buyouts. 2021 (with S. Davis, J. Haltiwanger, J. Lerner, B. Lipsius, and J. Miranda). [Accepted at Management Science]
https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3465723
Press/Media: [Vox.com], [New York Times], [NBER Digest], [VoxEU], [Politico], [Forbes], [Financial Times 1], [Financial Times 2]
An Import(ant) Price of Brexit Uncertainty (with A. Graziano and N. Limao). August 2023. NBER Working Paper 31600. [Accepted at Journal of International Economics]
Rising Import Tariffs, Falling Exports: When Modern Supply Chains Meet Old-Style Protectionism(with F. Kamal and R. Monarch) [Forthcoming at American Economic Journal: Applied Economics]
Press/Media: [Trade Talks Podcast], [Wall Street Journal], [Reuters], [Bloomberg], [Xinhua], [Salon], [Reason], [The Hill], [EconoFact], [DetroitNews], [Japan Times]
Firm Input Choice Under Trade Policy Uncertainty (with N. Limão, R. Ludema, and Z. Yu). July 2024. Journal of International Economics, Vol. 150.
Economic and Policy Uncertainty: Aggregate Export Dynamics and the Value of Agreements (with J. Carballo and N. Limão). November 2022 . Journal of International Economics, Vol 139.
Press: [WashPost], [CNBC], [VoxEU], [WallStreetJournal]
Trade Policy Uncertainty. 2021 (with N. Limão) NBER Working Paper No. 29672. https://www.nber.org/papers/w29672 [Published Annual Review of Economics, 2022]
Brexit Uncertainty and Trade Disintegration. 2018 (with A. Graziano and N. Limão) NBER Working Paper No. 25334. http://bit.ly/GHLBrexit [Published at Economic Journal, 2021]
Press/Media: [Trade Talks Podcast], [UM News Video], [UM News Q&A], [Politico]
Graziano, A., Handley, K. and Limão, N. (2020) Brexit Uncertainty: Trade Externalities Beyond Europe. AEA Papers and Proceedings
Handley, K. and Limão, N. (2017). Policy Uncertainty, Trade, and Welfare: Theory and Evidence for China and the United States. American Economic Review, 107(9):2731–83. http://bit.ly/ HL2017AER.
Short BFI video on this paper [link] | Video from 2012 UChicago talk [link, last 12 minutes]|Press: [Forbes 4/23/2019], [Foreign Affairs 6/25/18], [The Economist 3/11/2017]
Davis, S. J., Haltiwanger, J., Handley, K., Jarmin, R., Lerner, J., and Miranda, J. (2014). Private Equity, Jobs, and Productivity. American Economic Review, 104(12):3956–90. http://bit.ly/ DHHJML2014.
Handley, K. and Limão, N. (2015). Trade and Investment under Policy Uncertainty: Theory and Firm Evidence. American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, 7(4):189–222. http://bit.ly/ HL2015AEJ.
Winner of Chair Jaquemin Prize for Best Paper on Heterogeneous Firms and Trade Policy, 2011Video from 2012 UChicago talk[link] |
Press: [Washington Post 7/7/2016]
Handley, K. (2014). Exporting under Trade Policy Uncertainty: Theory and Evidence. Journal of International Economics, 94(1):50–66. http://bit.ly/Handley2014.
Winner of WTO Young Economist Essay Prize, 2011
Handley, K. (2012). Country Size, Technology and Manufacturing Location. Review of International Economics, 20(1):29–45. http://bit.ly/Handley2012.
Book Chapters
Handley, K. (2016). Entrepreneurship and the Challenge of Globalization. In New Entrepreneurial Growth Agenda. Kauffman Foundation, Kansas City.
Handley, K. and Limão, N. (2017). Trade under T.R.U.M.P. policies. In Bown, C. P., editor, Economics and policy in the Age of Trump, London, U.K.: CEPR, Chapter 13, pages 141–152. CEPR, London,U.K. http://bit.ly/HL2017ceprbook.
Kyle Handley and Nuno Limão (2019). “The policy uncertainty aftershocks of trade wars and trade tensions.” In Trade War: The Clash of Economic Systems Endangering Global Prosperity. Ed. by Meredith A. Crowley. London, U.K.: CEPR, 2019. Chap. 10, pp. 95–100.
Kyle Handley 