Working Papers

Brexit Uncertainty and Trade Disintegration. 2018 (with A. Graziano and N. Limão) NBER Working Paper No. 25334. [Invited to Revise and Resubmit at Economic Journal]

ABSTRACT: We estimate the uncertainty effects of preferential trade disagreements. Increases in the probability of Britain’s exit from the European Union (Brexit) significantly reduced bilateral export values and participation before the June 2016 referendum. These effects are increasing in trade policy risk across products, e.g. a persistent doubling of Brexit probability lowers EU-UK bilateral export values by as much as 15 log points if their disagreement tariff is 4% (“hard Brexit”) instead of zero. The implied probability of this hard Brexit outcome was higher for EU exporters to Britain; but neither believed a trade war was likely.

Press/Media: [Trade Talks Podcast], [UM News Video], [UM News Q&A], [Politico]

Economic and Policy Uncertainty: Export Dynamics and the Value of Agreements. 2018 (with J. Carballo and N. Limão). NBER Working Papers 24368, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Invited to Revise and Resubmit at Journal of International Economics]

Press: [WashPost], [CNBC], [VoxEU], [WallStreetJournal]

The Impact of Chinese Trade on U.S. Employment: The Good, the Bad, and the Debatable (with N. Bloom, A Kurmann, P. Luck).
Draft:, Slides:

Press: [The Economist][WSJ Realtime Econ][Financial Times], [Bloomberg]

Measuring the Effects of Firm Uncertainty on Economic Activity: New Evidence from One Million Documents. 2018. (with J.F. Li). Mimeo.

The Social Impact of Private Equity Over the Economic Cycle. 2018 (with S. Davis, J. Haltiwanger, J. Lerner, B. Lipsius, and J. Miranda).

Tariffs, Transport Costs, and Tax Evasion. 2018 (with T. Moore) Mimeo.

Input Trade and Policy Uncertainty: Theory and Evidence from Chinese Firms (with N. Limão, R. Ludema, and Z. Yu). Mimeo.

Published Papers

Handley, K. and Limão, N. (2017). Policy Uncertainty, Trade, and Welfare: Theory and Evidence for China and the United States. American Economic Review, 107(9):2731–83. HL2017AER.

Short BFI video on this paper [link] | Video from 2012 UChicago talk [link, last 12 minutes]|Press: [Forbes 4/23/2019[The Economist 3/11/2017]

Davis, S. J., Haltiwanger, J., Handley, K., Jarmin, R., Lerner, J., and Miranda, J. (2014). Private Equity, Jobs, and Productivity. American Economic Review, 104(12):3956–90. DHHJML2014.

Handley, K. and Limão, N. (2015). Trade and Investment under Policy Uncertainty: Theory and Firm Evidence. American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, 7(4):189–222. HL2015AEJ.

Winner of Chair Jaquemin Prize for Best Paper on Heterogeneous Firms and Trade Policy, 2011 | Video from 2012 UChicago talk[link] | Press: [Washington Post 7/7/2016]

Handley, K. (2014). Exporting under Trade Policy Uncertainty: Theory and Evidence. Journal of International Economics, 94(1):50–66.

Winner of WTO Young Economist Essay Prize, 2011

Handley, K. (2012). Country Size, Technology and Manufacturing Location. Review of International Economics, 20(1):29–45.

Book Chapters

Handley, K. (2016). Entrepreneurship and the Challenge of Globalization. In New Entrepreneurial Growth Agenda. Kauffman Foundation, Kansas City.

Handley, K. and Limão, N. (2017). Trade under T.R.U.M.P. policies. In Bown, C. P., editor, Economics and policy in the Age of Trump, chapter 13, pages 141–152. CEPR, London,U.K.