Brexit Uncertainty and Trade Disintegration. 2018 (with A. Graziano and N. Limão) NBER Working Paper No. 25334. http://bit.ly/GHLBrexit [Invited to Revise and Resubmit at Economic Journal]
ABSTRACT: We estimate the uncertainty effects of preferential trade disagreements. Increases in the probability of Britain’s exit from the European Union (Brexit) significantly reduced bilateral export values and participation before the June 2016 referendum. These effects are increasing in trade policy risk across products, e.g. a persistent doubling of Brexit probability lowers EU-UK bilateral export values by as much as 15 log points if their disagreement tariff is 4% (“hard Brexit”) instead of zero. The implied probability of this hard Brexit outcome was higher for EU exporters to Britain; but neither believed a trade war was likely.
Economic and Policy Uncertainty: Export Dynamics and the Value of Agreements. 2018 (with J. Carballo and N. Limão). NBER Working Papers 24368, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. http://bit.ly/CHL2018epudyn.
Measuring the Effects of Firm Uncertainty on Economic Activity: New Evidence from One Million Documents. 2018. (with J.F. Li). Mimeo. http://bit.ly/HL2018CRUX.
The Social Impact of Private Equity Over the Economic Cycle. 2018 (with S. Davis, J. Haltiwanger, J. Lerner, B. Lipsius, and J. Miranda). http://bit.ly/pequity_cycle
Input Trade and Policy Uncertainty: Theory and Evidence from Chinese Firms (with N. Limão, R. Ludema, and Z. Yu). Mimeo.
Davis, S. J., Haltiwanger, J., Handley, K., Jarmin, R., Lerner, J., and Miranda, J. (2014). Private Equity, Jobs, and Productivity. American Economic Review, 104(12):3956–90. http://bit.ly/ DHHJML2014.
Handley, K. (2014). Exporting under Trade Policy Uncertainty: Theory and Evidence. Journal of International Economics, 94(1):50–66. http://bit.ly/Handley2014.
Winner of WTO Young Economist Essay Prize, 2011
Handley, K. (2012). Country Size, Technology and Manufacturing Location. Review of International Economics, 20(1):29–45. http://bit.ly/Handley2012.
Handley, K. (2016). Entrepreneurship and the Challenge of Globalization. In New Entrepreneurial Growth Agenda. Kauffman Foundation, Kansas City.
Handley, K. and Limão, N. (2017). Trade under T.R.U.M.P. policies. In Bown, C. P., editor, Economics and policy in the Age of Trump, chapter 13, pages 141–152. CEPR, London,U.K. http://bit.ly/HL2017ceprbook.